Surge upwards ahead?

The theme for the past few weeks is that as soon as a selling wave starts, there is very little follow through. We seem to be at one of those junctures again, with the possibility of an explosive move upwards in the QQQQ.

Selloff halted - for now

The selloff that seemed to be indicated with last Thursday's action has been halted, and the most likely scenario is that we have a bounce in the short term here. In general, our input factors are making us bearish now, so any rally or short term surge should be used to sell into.

Q4 selling right on target

The lack of upswing in Tuesday's and Wednesday's sessions pointed to traders trying to 'jump the gun' on the Q4 selling. Now that October is here, it looks we are starting with aggressive selling that could make Q4 be an almost replay of last year's last quarter.

September marks start of major selling

The clues from the last trading day of August, and the lower futures today, show that September could well show major selling in the US stock indices and likely around the world too.

Sharp rise in short term?

Although we anticipate a possibly strong and fast decline in the near future, right now there is a continued push upwards that could be an aggressive short squeeze in the Nasdaq 100 stocks. QQQQ could see a sharp rise as a result, but get ready for an August / September problem.

Weakness heading into fall?

After posting a very choppy May and June, we have again had a two week rally in the QQQQ. We are still expecting a period of weakness in the August / September timeframe.

Monday up day interrupts last week's selling

After what looked like a strong resumption to the downtrend last week, Monday showed a surge to interrupt this trend. We believe that last week was the primary trend, and factors like TrimTabs releasing information Monday talking about insider selling rising dramatically during the recent market runup adds to our belief that a resumption of the bear trend is right around the corner.

Uptrend since 9 March snapped

The mood has definitely suddenly shifted to down. The recent uptrend in the QQQQ since 9 March has been snapped, so we will be on the lookout for the length and depth of this correction. There could be more upside to come.

Stunning market rally marks 9 March as the trading bottom

An absolutely stunning rally today has clearly marked March 9 as the recent trading bottom. Momentum is with the bulls and it will be very interesting to watch the extent and strength of this rally. Expect more bullishness on the QQQQ for the rest of the week.

Strong selling resumes

The market continues to fall with no discernible floor in sight. QQQQ has shown strange behaviour in the last few weeks, leading to a tough interpretation of its next movement. However the strong selling has been resumed and should continue.

Calm before the storm?

Today's action has a "calm before the storm" feel, where a sudden move downwards might surprise investors. The markets have been in a kind of lull over the past few weeks, with volatility disappearing. This could be quickly shaken up if a selling wave emerges.

Short term pop ahead?

With markets closed Monday in the US for MLK, we look toward the rest of the week with the idea that our model is indicating the potential for a short term bounce. We think it unlikely to last long or have much strength, but the odds of a pop have increased recently.

Market looks heavy to begin 2009

The QQQQ's December slow rise has caused volatility to fall and complacency to set in again. Our model points to more long term selling ahead, but we must be on the lookout for short term pops. The market looks very heavy here.