Stock Market Timing

Surge upwards ahead?

2009-10-26T13:12:00.000-07:00

The theme for the past few weeks is that as soon as a selling wave starts, there is very little follow through. We seem to be at one of those junctures again, with the possibility of an explosive move upwards in the QQQQ.

Selloff halted - for now

2009-10-05T15:56:00.000-07:00

The selloff that seemed to be indicated with last Thursday's action has been halted, and the most likely scenario is that we have a bounce in the short term here. In general, our input factors are making us bearish now, so any rally or short term surge should be used to sell into.

Q4 selling right on target

2009-10-01T08:42:00.000-07:00

The lack of upswing in Tuesday's and Wednesday's sessions pointed to traders trying to 'jump the gun' on the Q4 selling. Now that October is here, it looks we are starting with aggressive selling that could make Q4 be an almost replay of last year's last quarter.

September marks start of major selling

2009-09-01T06:23:00.000-07:00

The clues from the last trading day of August, and the lower futures today, show that September could well show major selling in the US stock indices and likely around the world too.

Sharp rise in short term?

2009-08-03T16:09:00.001-07:00

Although we anticipate a possibly strong and fast decline in the near future, right now there is a continued push upwards that could be an aggressive short squeeze in the Nasdaq 100 stocks. QQQQ could see a sharp rise as a result, but get ready for an August / September problem.

Weakness heading into fall?

2009-07-29T05:40:00.001-07:00

After posting a very choppy May and June, we have again had a two week rally in the QQQQ. We are still expecting a period of weakness in the August / September timeframe.

Monday up day interrupts last week's selling

2009-05-18T13:23:00.000-07:00

After what looked like a strong resumption to the downtrend last week, Monday showed a surge to interrupt this trend. We believe that last week was the primary trend, and factors like TrimTabs releasing information Monday talking about insider selling rising dramatically during the recent market runup adds to our belief that a resumption of the bear trend is right around the corner.

Uptrend since 9 March snapped

2009-03-30T14:55:00.001-07:00

The mood has definitely suddenly shifted to down. The recent uptrend in the QQQQ since 9 March has been snapped, so we will be on the lookout for the length and depth of this correction. There could be more upside to come.

Stunning market rally marks 9 March as the trading bottom

2009-03-23T13:03:00.001-07:00

An absolutely stunning rally today has clearly marked March 9 as the recent trading bottom. Momentum is with the bulls and it will be very interesting to watch the extent and strength of this rally. Expect more bullishness on the QQQQ for the rest of the week.

Strong selling resumes

2009-03-02T14:23:00.000-08:00

The market continues to fall with no discernible floor in sight. QQQQ has shown strange behaviour in the last few weeks, leading to a tough interpretation of its next movement. However the strong selling has been resumed and should continue.

Calm before the storm?

2009-01-26T13:38:00.001-08:00

Today's action has a "calm before the storm" feel, where a sudden move downwards might surprise investors. The markets have been in a kind of lull over the past few weeks, with volatility disappearing. This could be quickly shaken up if a selling wave emerges.

Short term pop ahead?

2009-01-19T14:54:00.000-08:00

With markets closed Monday in the US for MLK, we look toward the rest of the week with the idea that our model is indicating the potential for a short term bounce. We think it unlikely to last long or have much strength, but the odds of a pop have increased recently.

Market looks heavy to begin 2009

2009-01-05T14:40:00.001-08:00

The QQQQ's December slow rise has caused volatility to fall and complacency to set in again. Our model points to more long term selling ahead, but we must be on the lookout for short term pops. The market looks very heavy here.

Directionless action might be broken soon

2008-12-15T14:45:00.001-08:00

The QQQQ has show a somewhat directionless pattern in the last two weeks, which may lull many into thinking the correction has ended and we are working through a bottoming process. We think a more likely scenario is that the complacency will be shaken by a sudden downward move, spiking volatility upwards again and making many people think again that the market has bottomed.

Bear resumes after US Thanksgiving shortened week

2008-12-01T14:22:00.001-08:00

There was something that seemed really fake about the rally last week. It began the previous Friday mid-session with the news that Geithner would be announced, which began the rally that lasted into last Monday and then Wednesday. The choppiness and shortened session on Friday made it difficult to trade, but it's safe to say after today's selling that the bear has returned. The large fundamental problems that exist in the economy cannot be ignored, and we expect a strong selling week.

Selling any rally proves profitable

2008-11-17T14:51:00.000-08:00

Another selloff in the last hour...showing again that recent rallies should be used as an opportunity to sell into (last Thursday being an excellent example). QQQQ continues to look weak by all measures but we must be on the lookout for a strong bounce.

China stimulus fails to spark follow through of buying

2008-11-10T13:36:00.001-08:00

The China stimulus steps were unable to keep the market propped up during the session, and selling resumed again. We believe this is the likely pattern that will take place in the near term, with rallies providing good opportunities to sell into the QQQQ. Earnings also seem to be weighing on the index, with Starbucks disappointing after hours on Monday.

QQQQ rally has stalled

2008-11-03T15:51:00.000-08:00

The sharp rally in QQQQ last week appears to have faded today, and we would expect more weakness ahead. Investors should be in protection mode now and not listen to commentators who are saying stocks are cheap...they are not by any historical standards. Our apologies to our subscribers for our site problems recently, we are working hard with our new web host to resolve them.

Bounce unlikely to hold up

2008-10-20T15:00:00.001-07:00

With technical indicators still basically broken as guidepost to help us, other factors in our model point to the suggestion that market strength should be sold into. We note that Texas Instruments is weak after hours on its earnings announcement which should weigh on technology stocks tomorrow.

One of the worst days for the market...ever

2008-09-29T16:02:00.000-07:00

With the extraordinary selling on Monday, it has become clear that the "normal" methods used to forecast a stock average must temporarily be put on hold until the market begins trading with normal cycles. Subscribers who have followed our advice in September have not only been protected but also had the potential to make an approximately 33% return since September 3 using the QID unit. Picking the bottom with a market being potentially driven by the timing political passage of a bailout bill is not a sound way to invest and picking the bottom here will both be dangerous and tricky. There is the potential with the bailout bill's passage in congress later in the week, along with the September quarter ending (fund managers report their quarterly results), October might begin to mark some kind of bottom. We will be watching closely for signs of a turn but for now remain bearish.

Market can't get past underlying problems

2008-09-22T12:54:00.000-07:00

With last week providing several shocks in either direction to the market, our hope was that this week would bring some stability to help forecast the future. However, today's selloff puts the momentum squarely with the bears, and is not likely to end anytime soon. A government bailout does not seem to be calming the markets which must still deal with a continuing housing problem, liquidity problems in the fixed income market, and high energy prices.

Extraordinary down day

2008-09-15T15:01:00.001-07:00

You've seen all the headlines and don't need us to reiterate them, but needless to say the short side of the QQQQ trade is the place to be. With movement like today and the likely daily flow of market-moving stories, it will be tough to call a bottom with accuracy. Until we see any sign in our model giving us reason to change, we see continuing weakness ahead.

So much for the bailout...

2008-09-09T15:58:00.001-07:00

Our idea that September could be shaky seems to be on track so far. The enthusiasm about the Fannie / Freddie bailout quickly dissipated, and Tuesday's action showed lots of technical damage. Lehman is now hitting with a potential implosion / discount sale, again stressing the financial system. We will see how this shakes out, but our estimate is that there is much more trouble to come.

Fannie and Freddie bailout fail to inspire large tech

2008-09-09T06:40:00.001-07:00

The big news surrounding Fannie and Freddie failed to inspire a weak QQQQ, finishing today's session down 0.14. While we always must be on the lookout for a potentially violent short squeeze, September has the feel of being particularly ugly for the broader stock indices at this point. We believe the housing problem in the US has a LONG way to go before washing out, with further credit and consumer spending pressure to come.

selling resumes

2008-07-28T13:39:00.000-07:00

Monday saw a resumption of selling, after a week of choppy sessions that failed to deliver any real upside. We believe this negative sentiment in the QQQQ should set the trend for coming sessions.